Why Invest Now and the Costs of Delay
Already some 40 percent of employers globally are finding it difficult to recruit people with the skills they need.3
If education in much of the world fails to keep up with the rising demand for skills, there will be major shortages of skilled workers in both developing and developed economies as well as large surpluses of workers with poor skills. This skills gap threatens to have far-reaching economic, social, and political repercussions. The growing skills gap will stunt global economic growth and reverse progress toward ending extreme poverty. Without action to give young people the education and skills they need to compete, more than a quarter of the population in low-income countries could still be living in extreme poverty in 2050.
The impact of poor education on health will be equally severe.
Projections suggest that by 2050, the number of lives lost each year because of a failure to provide adequate access to quality education would equal those lost today to HIV and malaria, two of the most deadly global diseases. By 2050, population growth would be at least 15 percent higher than if all children were learning – a critical factor in development as a whole.
If inequality in education persists, the implications for global stability are also dire.
Historical analysis shows that inequality fuels unrest and when educational inequality doubles, the probability of conflict more than doubles. Unrest is likely to be greatest where the gap between youth expectations and daily realities is widest. Population movements could further compound these pressures. Today, the number of people displaced by conflict is at an all-time high and migration from conflict, climate change, and economic strains is set to increase. The number of international migrants, many of whom will have been denied the opportunity to acquire skills, is estimated to grow to around 400 million people by 2050. With education critical to resilience and cohesion, the dearth of skills will increase vulnerability to shocks and the risks of instability across the world.
Where economic, technological, demographic, and geopolitical trends collide with weak education systems, the risks of instability, radicalization, and economic decline are at their greatest. If the world does not equip all young people with the skills they will need to participate in the future economy, the costs of inaction and delay could be irreparable.